Foundation. Isaac AsimovЧитать онлайн книгу.
can predict the history of Trantor five hundred years into the future—’
‘He can predict it fifteen hundred years into the future.’
‘Let it be fifteen thousand. Why couldn’t he yesterday have predicted the events of this morning and warned me? – no, I’m sorry.’ Gaal sat down and rested his head in one sweating palm. ‘I quite understand that psychohistory is a statistical science and cannot predict the future of a single man with any accuracy. You’ll understand that I’m upset.’
‘But you are wrong. Dr Seldon was of the opinion that you would be arrested this morning.’
‘What!’
‘It is unfortunate, but true. The Commission has been more and more hostile to his activities. New members joining the group have been interfered with to an increasing extent. The graphs showed that for our purposes, matters might best be brought to a climax now. The Commission of itself was moving somewhat slowly so Dr Seldon visited you yesterday for the purpose of forcing their hand. No other reason.’
Gaal caught his breath. ‘I resent—’
‘Please. It was necessary. You were not picked for any personal reasons. You must realize that Dr Seldon’s plans, which are laid out with the developed mathematics of over eighteen years, include all eventualities with significant probabilities. This is one of them. I’ve been sent here for no other purpose than to assure you that you need not fear. It will end well; almost certainly so for the project; and with reasonable probability for you.’
‘What are the figures?’ demanded Gaal.
‘For the project, over 99.9 per cent.’
‘And for myself?’
‘I am instructed that this probability is 77.2 per cent.’
‘Then I’ve got better than one chance in five of being sentenced to prison or to death.’
‘The last is under one per cent.’
‘Indeed. Calculations upon one man mean nothing. You send Dr Seldon to me.’
‘Unfortunately, I cannot. Dr Seldon is himself arrested.’
The door was thrown open before the rising Gaal could do more than utter the beginning of a cry. A guard entered, walked to the table, picked up the recorder, looked upon all sides of it and put it in his pocket.
Avakim said quietly, ‘I will need that instrument.’
‘We will supply you with one, Counsellor, that does not cast a static field.’
‘My interview is done, in that case.’
Gaal watched him leave and was alone.
The trial (Gaal supposed it to be one, though it bore little resemblance legalistically to elaborate trial techniques Gaal had read of) had not lasted long. It was in its third day. Yet already, Gaal could no longer stretch his memory back far enough to embrace its beginning.
He himself had been but little pecked at. The heavy guns were trained on Dr Seldon himself. Hari Seldon, however, sat there unperturbed. To Gaal, he was the only spot of stability remaining in the world.
The audience was small and drawn exclusively from among the Barons of the Empire. Press and public were excluded and it was doubtful that any significant number of outsiders even knew that a trial of Seldon was conducted. The atmosphere was one of unrelieved hostility toward the defendants.
Five of the Commission of Public Safety sat behind the raised desk. They wore scarlet and gold uniforms and the shining, close-fitting plastic caps that were the sign of their judicial function. In the centre was the Chief Commissioner Linge Chen. Gaal had never before seen so great a Lord and he watched him with fascination. Chen, throughout the trial, rarely said a word. He made it quite clear that much speech was beneath his dignity.
The Commission’s Advocate consulted his notes and the examination continued, with Seldon still on the stand:
Q. Let us see, Dr Seldon. How many men are now engaged in the project of which you are head?
A. Fifty mathematicians.
Q. Including Dr Gaal Dornick?
A. Dr Dornick is the fifty-first.
Q. Oh, we have fifty-one then? Search your memory, Dr Seldon. Perhaps there are fifty-two or fifty-three? Or perhaps even more?
A. Dr Dornick has not yet formally joined my organization. When he does, the membership will be fifty-one. It is now fifty, as I have said.
Q. Not perhaps nearly a hundred thousand?
A. Mathematicians? No.
Q. I did not say mathematicians. Are there a hundred thousand in all capacities?
A. In all capacities, your figure may be correct.
Q. May be? I say it is. I say that the men in your project number ninety-eight thousand, five hundred and seventy-two.
A. I believe you are counting women and children.
Q. (raising his voice) Ninety-eight thousand five hundred and seventy-two individuals is the intent of my statement. There is no need to quibble.
A. I accept the figures.
Q. (referring to his notes) Let us drop that for a moment, then, and take up another matter which we have already discussed at some length. Would you repeat, Dr Seldon your thoughts concerning the future of Trantor?
A. I have said, and I say again, that Trantor will lie in ruins within the next five centuries.
Q. You do not consider your statement a disloyal one?
A. No, sir. Scientific truth is beyond loyalty and disloyalty.
Q. You are sure that your statement represents scientific truth?
A. I am.
Q. On what basis?
A. On the basis of the mathematics of psychohistory.
Q. Can you prove that this mathematics is valid?
A. Only to another mathematician.
Q. (with a smile) Your claim then, is that your truth is of so esoteric a nature that it is beyond the understanding of a plain man. It seems to me that truth should be clearer than that, less mysterious, more open to the mind.
A. It presents no difficulties to some minds. The physics of energy transfer, which we know as thermodynamics, has been clear and true through all the history of man since the mythical ages, yet there may be people present who would find it impossible to design a power engine. People of high intelligence, too. I doubt if the learned Commissioners—
At this point, one of the Commissioners leaned toward the Advocate. His words were not heard but the hissing of the voice carried a certain asperity. The Advocate flushed and interrupted Seldon.
Q. We are not here to listen to speeches, Dr Seldon. Let us assume that you have made your point. Let me suggest to you that your predictions of disaster might be intended to destroy public confidence in the Imperial Government for purposes of your own.
A. That is not so.
Q. Let me suggest that you intend to claim that a period of time preceding the so-called ruin of Trantor will be filled with unrest of various types.
A. That is correct.
Q. And that by the mere prediction thereof, you hope to bring it about, and to have then an army of a hundred thousand available.
A. In the first place, that is not so. And if it were, investigation will show you that barely ten thousand are men of military age, and none of these has training in arms.
Q. Are you acting as